Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-4-0
17%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nitipoom Soijit (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Kernstock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 35:65
Round 3: Win vs Aphiwat Metta (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tatthep Kasetsin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs sasawat sirakosol (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dachkone Vasonchuenchochai (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.