Aurora, Shooting Star
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 7-1-0
62%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Pattharawit Srisuphasun (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Alexander Yusi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Natthapon Kamhaenghan (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Natchanon kamhanghan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ji Timm Lee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs chayut langthong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
5th • 6-2-0
88%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Tanaphun Phuagkhaopong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Emmanuel Onate (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dominik Däther (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Natchanon kamhanghan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Worranun Suklim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
19th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs chayut langthong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thanachart Thongwat (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ekalux Ua-areemitr (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Witthawat Phanthanitlert (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs kantanat poom chukiat (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
Round 7: Loss vs Phitchaya Tungpavitaya (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
34th • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nattapon Phanthanithilerd (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Paramee(Time) Khamsommat (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Natthaworn Raungsiripinyo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nithis Chaidaroon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tanaphun Phuagkhaopong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
0.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Worranun Suklim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
100% (1/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.