Fai, Rising Rebellion at Calling: Atlanta 2026 — FaB-Results

Fai, Rising Rebellion

Fai, Rising Rebellion

22 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

11th • 10-3-0

77%

Meta

+3.6

Perf

6.4

Surp

4.5

Diff

Dash I/O

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chase Effler (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Olympia, Prized Fighter

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Hanson (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Bartley (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Nguyen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Stephen Rollyson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Hans Schubert (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Bryam Silva (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.35
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.63
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ashlyn Slattery

17th • 10-3-0

69%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

6.9

Surp

5.9

Diff

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Tillinghast (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hans Schubert (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Dorinthea Ironsong

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hamilton Wexler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Khoi Doan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Zhang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs David Wadley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs William Pistel (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Zak Miller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.54
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.68
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.78
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.81
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

William Bradshaw

35th • 9-4-0

77%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

6.3

Surp

4.5

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs george flete (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Cuellari (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wilson Holzhaeuser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rhea Adams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chandler To (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Nguyen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Aaron Enos (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Micaiah Wooten (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Dash I/O

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Maxwell Ross (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mike Cortes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.24
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.69
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.99
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R13	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christiano Cavallo

55th • 7-6-0

54%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

6.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Perry (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shawn Walker (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Olympia, Prized Fighter

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Hine (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Dorinthea Ironsong

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Terry Floyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Justin Michael (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Justin Fan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alex Lindley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

54% (7/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.12
R3	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.36
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.47
R9	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.99
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R13	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

6.4

Surp

3.3

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Hawkinson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carter Garrett (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Hathaway (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kieran Jackson (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Will Earnhardt (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matt Muus (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Arakni, Marionette

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nathan Vargas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Connor Babcock (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Dash I/O

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Zackary Young (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Zach Roach (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.84
R9	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

dropped • 7-4-0

73%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Charles Sellars (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Dorinthea Ironsong

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Terry Floyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ernesto Milia (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Ellwood (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs John Hortman (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Cody Blackmore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mike Cortes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.53
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.73
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.06
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

dropped • 7-4-0

55%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs brynn nieboer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Viserai, the Forsaken

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs BRENT ANDERSON (Viserai, the Forsaken) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ravi Nehra (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Hortman (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Blake Payne (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Zak Cargin (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Zachary Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Stephen Rollyson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

55% (6/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.07
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Viserai, the Forsaken	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.43
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.64
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.56
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.3

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Valda, Seismic Impact

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sarah Schulze (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Kelly (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Dorinthea Ironsong

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alan Cox (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bryan Sweeney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Dylan Lee (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Matt Muus (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.60
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.12
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

Viserai, the Forsaken

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Viserai, the Forsaken) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Ross (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt von der Lippe (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Dash I/O

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Zackary Young (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Arakni, Huntsman

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Shlomo Amsel (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, the Forsaken	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

Puffin, Hightail

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Olympia, Prized Fighter

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Riley Thomas (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Muus (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Fan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Melson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Judd (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Ryan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Katsu, the Wanderer

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin Henry (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Smith (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Elliot Bicker (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tre Baroncini (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Dash I/O

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Emmanuel Barron (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Arakni, Huntsman

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

Arakni, Huntsman

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Giles Bradford (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Caleb Jansen (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Dorinthea Ironsong

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jake Screen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Phillip Kendall (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Dash I/O

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.50
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Dorinthea Ironsong

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Garrett Pieratt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mason Brantley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Max Escaler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Richard Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jason Crandall (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jean Paul Negron

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ernesto Milia (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Millwee (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Blake Payne (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Puffin, Hightail

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Summer Giles (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Derrick Azelton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.05
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Lantz (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William peralta (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Malice, Domina of the Dead

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luzian Kolb (Malice, Domina of the Dead) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Kruman (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Malice, Domina of the Dead	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Warden (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cole Smith (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Youngjin Ki (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cole Torres (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

Viserai, the Forsaken

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nik Dinnis (Viserai, the Forsaken) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Quinton Clark (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Hortman (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Emerson Miller (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, the Forsaken	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

Viserai, the Forsaken

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Devin Rataiczak (Viserai, the Forsaken) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Dash I/O

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Spescha (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hamilton Summer (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, the Forsaken	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sebastiano Cavallo

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tae Kim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Dash I/O

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan High (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 0-2-0

0%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Will Joseph (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Micaiah Wooten (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.