Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Calling: Atlanta 2026

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

40 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thomas Battaglia

1st • 13-3-0

94%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

6.1

Surp

4.9

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Rollyson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Neil Fitzgerald (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 91:9

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shane Cooper (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

Arakni, Huntsman

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Khoi Doan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Dorinthea Ironsong

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kellen Wheaton (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

90:10

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Patrick Nguyen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 91:9

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Wesley Dong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R15

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Michael Metallo (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

94% (15/16 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (9.8 expected, 13 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.06
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.02
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.11
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.24
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.18
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R9	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.08
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.29
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R15	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.94
R16	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

Timothy Scroggs

5th • 12-2-0

93%

Meta

+3.4

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.2

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aron Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hayden Lounsbury (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

90:10

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emerson Miller (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 91:9

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Metallo (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs William Pistel (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Steven Caraher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

90:10

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Chandler To (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 91:9

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Zak Miller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.4 Wins (8.6 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.11
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.03
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.43
R9	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.09
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.49
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.65
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.58
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

12th • 10-3-0

92%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.9

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jun Pierson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stanley Hopkins (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Devin Vincent (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Hunter Platt (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

Arakni, Huntsman

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Bryan Sweeney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andrew Melson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Steven Caraher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.06
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.49
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.35
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.26
R9	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.69
R10	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.45
R11	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R12	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75

22nd • 9-4-0

77%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.7

Diff

Zyggy Starlight

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anna Towle (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben Weinfeld (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 91:9

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Phillip Kendall (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul Sauer (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Pistel (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Dash I/O

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Caleb Engen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

90:10

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Patrick Nguyen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 91:9

Dorinthea Ironsong

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Dash I/O

25:75

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.02
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.13
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.92
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.07
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.52
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.08
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Andrew Blackwell

23rd • 9-4-0

69%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

5.9

Surp

3.4

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zach Johnson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Senokossoff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sophia Claire (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Feng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hakan Gunes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Hayden Christoffersen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matthew Renz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

90:10

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Chandler To (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 91:9

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Randy Davis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.06
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.18
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.89
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.98
R11	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.12
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R13	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

40th • 9-4-0

77%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

6.3

Surp

4.1

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Wellendorf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Evan Dasher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nathan Vargas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs David Bruner (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs None (Unknown)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Renz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andrew Melson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.12
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.34
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.55
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.18
R13	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

dropped • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael-Paul Johnson (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andy truong (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Harper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Dash I/O

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Fan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Dash I/O

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Maxwell Ross (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75

Olympia, Prized Fighter

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Christoph Munzig (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Valda, Seismic Impact

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jared Thompson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Hans Schubert (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.28
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R4	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.89
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Zachary Johnson

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cassidy De Leon (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Cordoma (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Puffin, Hightail

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Dash I/O

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs EJ Good (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dan Mui (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tre Baroncini (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Viserai, the Forsaken

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Viserai, the Forsaken) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.07
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.28
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.59
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	CC	Viserai, the Forsaken	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 5-2-1

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Hook (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Renz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Wilson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Nicholas Mihalas (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Dash I/O

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zackary Young (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75

Katsu, the Wanderer

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs zion moore (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Blake Payne (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.05
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Draw	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75

David Senokossoff

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Riley Lont (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Valda, Seismic Impact

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jared Thompson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Green (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Valda, Seismic Impact

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stephan DeNise (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Puffin, Hightail

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Patrick Nelson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Evan Dasher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R5	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Kelly (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jared Wyce (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sean Judd (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Arakni, Huntsman

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Zyggy Starlight

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anna Towle (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Christiano Cavallo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Jansen (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

Dash I/O

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Garcia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Micaiah Wooten (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Rabchenia (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Wolford (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R3	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.75
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.37
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

Malice, Domina of the Dead

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Charles Poe (Malice, Domina of the Dead) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christiano Cavallo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick Ortiz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Edward Pudim (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Reyes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

90:10

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Patrick Nguyen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 91:9, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Malice, Domina of the Dead	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.16
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Loss	✓	0.91	-

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Billy Uribes (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bryam Silva (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

90:10

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua White (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 91:9

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Wellendorf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Kruman (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Dorinthea Ironsong

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hamilton Wexler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

90:10

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ben Weinfeld (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 91:9

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.24
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.07
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.14

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Delgado (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Zapata (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Corwin Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Southon (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Puffin, Hightail

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ally <3 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Coons (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hayden Christoffersen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nathan Paciorek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Arakni, Huntsman

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Derrick Azelton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Alther (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Dash I/O

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jaden Enzbrenner (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Durwood Moore (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hans Schubert (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Kristian Schnell

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Gaskin (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bradley Tashman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Viserai, the Forsaken

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Viserai, the Forsaken) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Enos (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jesse Southon (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Viserai, the Forsaken	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

Fai, Rising Rebellion

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tre Baroncini (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Winry Owen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tommy Day (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, Huntsman

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carson Coker (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Phillip Kendall (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joe Yang (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Artie Hamelin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Dorinthea Ironsong

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sarah Marley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Sumera (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Valda, Seismic Impact

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jared Thompson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.45
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Lawrenson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mike Cortes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Kowalczyk (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tho Bui (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.32
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vyas Kepler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Viserai, the Forsaken

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Viserai, the Forsaken) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

90:10

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matt von der Lippe (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 91:9

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Viserai, the Forsaken	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.11
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

Malice, Domina of the Dead

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Benoit (Malice, Domina of the Dead) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hamilton Summer (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Ross (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Delgado (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Dash I/O

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chase Effler (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Malice, Domina of the Dead	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

Valda, Seismic Impact

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Billy Smith (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Silvester Nava (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Dzwill (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Dash I/O

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Tomlin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R4	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Maggert (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Riley Lont (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Puffin, Hightail

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Maxson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dana Martin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Viserai, the Forsaken

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Viserai, the Forsaken) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Viserai, the Forsaken	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Lovell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Dash I/O

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Camacho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gavyn Uribes (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Hathaway (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Sayer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Arakni, Huntsman

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Blankenship (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Mihilli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeffrey Rybak (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Zyggy Starlight

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kaleb Hackett (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Zyggy Starlight

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Corey Poff (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Julian Gonzalez

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Terrence Blackwell (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shaun Hannon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gavyn Uribes (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justine DeLuise (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Leon Lu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Lantz (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Hopkins (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dalton Altman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Dash I/O

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eris Schmidt (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Josh Chrvala (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aron Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, Huntsman

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Valda, Seismic Impact

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sarah Schulze (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Mihilli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Zyggy Starlight

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Koppenaal (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Dorinthea Ironsong

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Terry Floyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Katsu, the Wanderer

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs zion moore (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cameron Norman (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stanley Hopkins (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Yu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

BENJAMIN ALANIZ

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Madrigal (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Dorinthea Ironsong

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Walker Stephens (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brandon Hartman

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Michael (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raimello Jackson (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs William Weinberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.