Valda, Seismic Impact at National Championship 2026

Valda, Seismic Impact

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

梓帆陈

49th • 3-3-1

43%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 张希远 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Moran Zhuang (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 90:10

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 至上王 (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs YIZHENG CHEN (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Weizhen Qin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 30:70

90:10

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs milk dragon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 91:9

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs 小龙时刻 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.04
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Draw	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.18
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.67	2.31

lee peng

57th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 至上王 (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Xinyu Gu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs HAODONG SUN (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs batian zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Judge John (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs yang yang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

90:10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs milk dragon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 91:9

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.20

Yiyang Song

dropped • 0-5-0

60%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jade Zhou (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 至上王 (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs HAOXUE LIU (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs jingzhe zhao (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs zhiqi xiao (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

jingzhe zhao

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bangliang Liu (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lingyang Zhou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Tang Li (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yiyang Song (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Draw	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.