Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2026

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

可暄赵

27th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs BINGO 景 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fu junming (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 小龙时刻 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 老抽王 (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs jincheng zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs lin ruoyang (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs HAOXUE LIU (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.08
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.35
R8	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

至上王

52nd • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs lee peng (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yiyang Song (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 梓帆陈 (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs kaiwei wang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Zhipeng Sun (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Zihan Xu (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs lianze Xiao (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.89
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	20%	Win	✗	0.78	2.48
R9	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Runcheng Zhang

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wendi Zhang (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 22:78

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hao Miao (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mingyu Feng (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 78:22

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 超陆 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.27
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.56

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.