National Championship 2026 - China - Rhinar, Reckless Rampage (CC)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alessandro Miraldi

2nd • 9-1-0

10%

Meta

+4.4

Perf

5.3

Surp

6.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chunan Xiong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs JIA NIAN WANG (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 张希远 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs HAODONG SUN (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jiabin Chen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jinghao Shi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hongkai Guo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Hongkai Guo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Panliang He (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jinghao Shi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

10% (1/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.32
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.89
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.05
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.22
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.40
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

milk dragon

62nd • 2-5-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 张恩宁 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs YIZHENG CHEN (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sol Ring (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Xingyu ZHOU (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Moran Zhuang (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

10:90

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs 梓帆陈 (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 9:91

10:90

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs lee peng (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 9:91

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.50
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.67
R9	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-
R10	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-

Mind Goblin

dropped • 2-1-1

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 钧楷王 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wentao Huang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs dean zhong (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Weizhen Qin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Draw	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

Daixin Zhuang

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs HAOXUE LIU (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs lianze Xiao (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xiyu Cai (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs dean zhong (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.