Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026

Arakni, Marionette

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Suh Jaeyong

3rd • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kim Minki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lee Dong-Hee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cameron Bradley (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

80:20

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs OH Youngjin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs sungbin sim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hangjune "Shu" Cho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Hojin Choi (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.33
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.17
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Juntaek Lim

11th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs HAN DONG HUI (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sulbin Park (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hyun Woo Doh (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs ko yunsik (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jeongwoo Cho (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Gyumin Shim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.07
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.55
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.30

seongkyu lim

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 조 윤재 (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs myung hyun Tak (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Reigstad (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sinho Seol (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kim Minki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.67
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Wookyung Park

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hyeonjin Kim (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ahn Hyowon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gyumin Shim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs OH Youngjin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lee Ryang Hoon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.52
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Cameron Bradley

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs myung hyun Tak (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs wooram Oh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hyun Woo Doh (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Jihoon Park

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Byoung Hwi Kim (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs HyoungJun You (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs harbae KIM (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jean-Luc Parr (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

myung hyun Tak

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cameron Bradley (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs seongkyu lim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs TAEHO KWON (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs JIN SEUNGHYUN (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.