National Championship 2026 - South Korea - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Hangjune "Shu" Cho

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs harbae KIM (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kyoungsoo Kim (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sulbin Park (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs sungbin sim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Hojin Choi (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kim Minki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.30
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.26
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.22
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Hyun Woo Doh

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kunbo Kim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 인구 김 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Juntaek Lim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cameron Bradley (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.71
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jason Ricketts

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs JISU HAN (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs TAEWOO KWON (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jean-Luc Parr (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kyujung Lee (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.