Aurora, Legacy of Tempest
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
2.8
Surp
3.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jason Ricketts (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ugo Henson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86
Round 3: Win vs Kunbo Kim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sulbin Park (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Andy Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs harbae KIM (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.