Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2026

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonasemil Schmidt

29th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jon Sørensen (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emil Spangenberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mathias W (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michel Westermann (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jeppe Nielsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.11

Olivar Rodén

30th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Westenra (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Magnus Hermansholm (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Danny Halstad (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dawid Majgat (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alexander Kyndi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.20
R9	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50

Jonas Benzarti

32nd • 2-4-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Frederik Pedersen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Akasha Hansen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emil Lohse (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeppe Nielsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nicolaj Lyth (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.94
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.