National Championship 2026 - Denmark - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kenni Pedersen

2nd • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mathias W (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fábián Demeter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andreas Ventzel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Frederik Damholt Hansen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Emil Spangenberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

15:85

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Victor Brøcker (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.37
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.33
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.98
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.88
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.56
R12	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Magnus Hermansholm

17th • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

4.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Olivar Rodén (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeppe Nielsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christian Jelle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Frederik Pedersen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Mads Bergenstoff (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.92
R8	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.58
R9	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.65

Fábián Demeter

10th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kenni Pedersen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andreas Ventzel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Mads Rosenkrands Kaasing (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.73
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.87
R9	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.66

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.