Arakni, Marionette
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-1-0
50%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Emil Yusaku Tauchi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jon Holm Thomsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Win vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Frederik Pedersen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 8: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
75:25
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Emil Spangenberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Victor Brøcker (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 75% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Zyggy Starlight | 40% | Loss |
5th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michel Westermann (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonasemil Schmidt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kristian Faber (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Kenni Pedersen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Tilemachos Tsontakis (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
33rd • 3-2-1
67%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Emil Lohse (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christian Sørup Jensen (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Mathias Jeppesen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Draw vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Draw |
38th • 2-3-1
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Emil Lohse (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michel Westermann (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Rosenkrans (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Emil Yusaku Tauchi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jon Sørensen (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Draw |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Pleiades, Superstar | 70% | Win |
dropped • 0-4-0
75%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Victor Brøcker (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Kyndi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kenni Pedersen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Fábián Demeter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zyggy Starlight | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.