Vynnset, Iron Maiden
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
32nd • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs erwin leung (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Clement Cheng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Yau (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wilson Cheung (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Rudy Ar (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 82:18
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Round 10: Loss vs Mortal Chu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Loss |
43rd • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Wu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bentley Tse (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lewis Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Samuel Cho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs FUNG CC (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs YAT TUNG (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Eric Chu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Chi san Tse (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pang Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Henry Fan (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 54:46
Round 3: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dennis Yip (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bentley Tse (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Clement Cheng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gordon Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jackie wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Man Ho Tang (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Clong H (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gordon Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.