Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2026

Fai, Rising Rebellion

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Teddy Tai

dropped • 2-4-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Man Ho Tang (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zane Wong (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mortal Chu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eric Chu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Lee Ka Yu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.23
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.69
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

YAT TUNG

dropped • 1-4-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Chu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Man Ho Tang (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mountain Wong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rudy Ar (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Keung Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Win	✗	0.86	1.68
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Henry Lau

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wan Tenjin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cheuk Hin Jacky Ho (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ashley Chiu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cold Cold Lee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.68
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.