Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at National Championship 2026

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Lo

17th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mountain Wong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 74:26

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cold Cold Lee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chan Lion (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 74:26

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Chun On Anson Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs ricky leung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.13
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.61
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.25
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.42
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Jason Lo

45th • 1-6-0

29%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs WAI KIT LO (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hoi Yi Kwok (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 17:83

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcus Shum (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jackie wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs ka chun chan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Dennis Yip

dropped • 1-4-0

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Lee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zane Wong (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs treeming Tsang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Marcus Shum

dropped • 0-5-0

40%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar S (Oscilio, Forked Continuum) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jackie wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Lo (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eddy C (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Forked Continuum	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.