Arakni, Marionette
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 6-3-0
33%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
4.3
Surp
5.3
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chi san Tse (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Law Wen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs ricky leung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Louis Tsoi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Kelvin Ng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 11: Win vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ian Chan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
5.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
5th • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marcus Shum (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45
Round 2: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kan Ting JoeB (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jerry Au (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Colin Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Colin Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
13th • 6-1-0
71%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
4.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jason Lam (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kan Ting JoeB (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs erwin leung (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jack Tang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 9: Win vs Mortal Chu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Alex Lo (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
42nd • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wan Tenjin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs erwin leung (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Jason Lo (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
16th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zane Wong (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs yau tony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Oscar S (Oscilio, Forked Continuum) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Hui Ryan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ian Chan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Forked Continuum | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Keung Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jason Lo (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Isaac Lee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.