FaB-Results

Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026 - Hong Kong

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nova Chan
3rd • 6-3-0
44%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
4.3
Surp
5.3
Diff
Prism, Awakener of Sol
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chi san Tse (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 70:30
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Law Wen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
Arakni, Marionette
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs ricky leung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Louis Tsoi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
Dash I/O
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Kelvin Ng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
Prism, Awakener of Sol
!
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ian Chan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Tsz Lung Wu
5th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.1
Diff
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marcus Shum (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44
Dorinthea Ironsong
!
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kan Ting JoeB (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jerry Au (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Colin Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
Prism, Awakener of Sol
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Colin Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
ricky leung
13th • 6-1-0
71%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
4.4
Diff
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jason Lam (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kan Ting JoeB (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs erwin leung (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jack Tang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Arakni, Marionette
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Prism, Awakener of Sol
!
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Mortal Chu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Alex Lo (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44
Terry Yuen
42nd • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.4
Diff
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wan Tenjin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Jarl Vetreiði
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs erwin leung (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Jason Lo (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44
Pang Chan
16th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.0
Diff
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zane Wong (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs yau tony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58
Dash I/O
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
Oscilio, Forked Continuum
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Oscar S (Oscilio, Forked Continuum) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Hui Ryan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ian Chan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Prism, Awakener of Sol
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
WAI KIT LO
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Keung Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jason Lo (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Isaac Lee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.