National Championship 2026 - Hong Kong - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Anthony Liu

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jerry Au (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Clong H (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hui Ryan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jackie wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.48
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.60

Bentley Tse

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Colin Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lewis Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gordon Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ashley Chiu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 31:69

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs FUNG CC (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.27
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.41
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Hoi Yi Kwok

dropped • 1-1-2

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Willy Chan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Elvis Ho (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Lo (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Philip Wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Draw	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.