Showdown: Auckland 2026 - Fai (SAGE)

Fai

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jess Arnesen

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Brake (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jono Scott (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Darge (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Spencer Horton (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Manuel Solomon (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Manuel Solomon (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.75
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.25
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-

Nick Kerr

22nd • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Dunlop (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Mackley (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Hartley (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Cassandra Hancock (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Piper Allen (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jay Haskett

26th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ramone King (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Manuel Solomon (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sage Walker (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Braiden Burne (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Simon Kibblewhite (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs William Gibson (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.19
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Cassandra Hancock

30th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Piper Allen (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Trixie Sargisson (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Digl Dixon (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nick Kerr (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Deanna Packwood (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.