Showdown: Auckland 2026 - Blaze, Firemind (SAGE)

Blaze, Firemind

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kieran Carnegie

5th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Liam Anderson (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ben Kent (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lee Mackley (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.87
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.39
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Spencer Horton

11th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Caleb Sinclair (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cassandra Hancock (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jess Arnesen (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Freeman Monika (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

Piper Allen

12th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cassandra Hancock (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Gibson (Dash) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sage Walker (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nick Kerr (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.23
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Amelia Hulin-Bobart

14th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cameron White (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Simon Kibblewhite (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Manuel Solomon (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs John Wardan (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jingxuan TONG (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sean Stanley (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

Sage Walker

16th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Wardan (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Brake (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jay Haskett (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Piper Allen (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kalpesh Tailor (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.