Blaze, Firemind at Showdown: Auckland 2026

Blaze, Firemind

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kieran Carnegie

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Liam Anderson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ben Kent (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lee Mackley (Oldhim) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.17
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.75
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.30
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Spencer Horton

11th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Caleb Sinclair (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cassandra Hancock (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jess Arnesen (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Freeman Monika (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.76
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Piper Allen

12th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cassandra Hancock (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Gibson (Dash) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sage Walker (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Briar) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nick Kerr (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.23
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Amelia Hulin-Bobart

14th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cameron White (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Simon Kibblewhite (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Manuel Solomon (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs John Wardan (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jingxuan TONG (Briar) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sean Stanley (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.84
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Sage Walker

16th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Wardan (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Brake (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jay Haskett (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Piper Allen (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kalpesh Tailor (Briar) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 82:18

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.84
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.29

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.