Briar at Showdown: Auckland 2026

Briar

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrea Mengucci

1st • 9-0-0

78%

Meta

+3.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ben Kent (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Apanui (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tom Hartley (Riptide) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dan Griffin (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Manuel Solomon (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rob Davenport (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Manuel Solomon (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.16
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.59
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.79
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.28

Rob Davenport

5th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Liam Anderson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dan Griffin (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Simon Kibblewhite (Dorinthea) - Expected: 90:10

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Raymond Ocdol (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs John Wardan (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Darge (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.07
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Philip Nagle

9th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Hartley (Riptide) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Deanna Packwood (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Caleb Sinclair (Boltyn) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jingxuan TONG (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Piper Allen (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Dan Griffin (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Boltyn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.86
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Troy Wilson

15th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Deanna Packwood (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Hartley (Riptide) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Dunlop (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 79:21

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Stanley (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Raymond Ocdol (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs John Wardan (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Brandon Apanui

25th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Braiden Burne (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs William Gibson (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Darge (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kalpesh Tailor (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Deanna Packwood

29th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Trixie Sargisson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lynnette Nattrass (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Braiden Burne (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cassandra Hancock (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.23
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Raymond Ocdol

31st • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dan Griffin (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Esme Hulbert-Putt (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Keatinge (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Digl Dixon (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Kalpesh Tailor

32nd • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Keatinge (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jingxuan TONG (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Stanley (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Trixie Sargisson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sage Walker (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Apanui (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jingxuan TONG

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Josh Jones (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kalpesh Tailor (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dan Griffin (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.28
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Trixie Sargisson

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Stanley (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Cassandra Hancock (Fai) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Deanna Packwood (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kalpesh Tailor (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lynnette Nattrass

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Darge (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs William Gibson (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Brake (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Deanna Packwood (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Liam Anderson

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kieran Carnegie (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.