Showdown: Auckland 2026 - Iyslander (SAGE)

Iyslander

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Freeman Monika

19th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kieran Carnegie (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs John Wardan (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jono Scott (Dash) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Darge (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lee Mackley (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Sean Stanley

20th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Trixie Sargisson (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Darge (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kalpesh Tailor (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Troy Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.45
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Josh Jones

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jingxuan TONG (Briar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.