Showdown: Auckland 2026 - Dromai (SAGE)

Dromai

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Karl Eagle

3rd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Esme Hulbert-Putt (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Piper Allen (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Spencer Horton (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jess Arnesen (Fai) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kieran Carnegie (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kieran Carnegie (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

John Wardan

18th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sage Walker (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Freeman Monika (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lee Mackley (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Cameron White

37th • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Kent (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs William Gibson (Dash) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

0:100

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Braiden Burne (Rhinar) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Esme Hulbert-Putt

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Karl Eagle (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Raymond Ocdol (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

0:100

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Braiden Burne (Rhinar) - Expected: 0:100

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Brake (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.