Briar at Calling: San Diego 2026

Briar

37 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brodie Spurlock

5th • 11-0-0

55%

Meta

+5.6

Perf

5.6

Surp

6.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daylen Frehlick (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Tagg (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Shane Martin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Evan Herndon (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Feng (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Taotao Chu (Nuu) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Pitcher (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Evan Bridges (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

55% (6/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+5.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.35
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.69
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R10	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.04
R11	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Michael Feng

2nd • 9-2-0

64%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

5.4

Surp

4.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Franche Tan (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs John Kim (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Glenn Rosario II (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs May Hayden (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Matt Rogers (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Hayley Neighbors (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.73
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.57
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.77
R11	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Michael Clair

9th • 8-3-0

55%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luis Vargas (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Liwag (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Hawkinson (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs David Pier (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kenneth Thomas (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Matt Rogers (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Dalton Cameron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Ryan Pitcher (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Nuu) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

55% (6/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.45
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.97
R10	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.98
R11	Silver Age	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

sean Burke

21st • 7-4-0

55%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.8

Surp

4.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eric Lui (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ian Tayag (Olympia) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Othman Akel (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Terra) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Tagg (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Franche Tan (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs justin schlapkohl (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Neet (Terra) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Jason Ginn (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

55% (6/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.32
R6	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.88
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.71
R10	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.47
R11	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Ginn

26th • 7-4-0

73%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Cooper (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Peter Nguyen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs May Hayden (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Alldredge (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Branden Adams (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kenneth Thomas (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Adam Saiewitz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Austin Kim (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs sean Burke (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.30
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.86
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R10	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R11	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alex Nolan

30th • 7-4-0

91%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Pitcher (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matheo Franchot (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Colin Marshall (Dash) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Luke Gilmore (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Kenneth Thomas (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Sean Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs May Hayden (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.08
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Richard Truong

32nd • 7-4-0

82%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emerson Miller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Marc Buchanan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Devon Porcher (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs May Hayden (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Kyle Farrell (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Mystyq Gem Pulmano (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs justin schlapkohl (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.68
R11	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Anthony Camacho

34th • 6-5-0

55%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Mendez (Levia) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kenjy Jap (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs kosei chetanna (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Grant Strom (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Devon Porcher (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Luke Gilmore (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

55% (6/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.59
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R9	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez

35th • 6-5-0

73%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

5.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Saiewitz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vince Hung (Dash) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Richard Truong (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alex Nolan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mystyq Gem Pulmano (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dean Carr (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kyle Farrell (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Hawkinson (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Franche Tan (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.73
R9	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.86
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R11	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

May Hayden

39th • 6-5-0

73%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

5.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Price (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Pitcher (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jason Ginn (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dalton Cameron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ryu San jose (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Richard Truong (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Feng (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Devon Porcher (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Alex Nolan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R10	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.77
R11	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sean Wilson

40th • 6-5-0

64%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Alldredge (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Pier (Terra) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Castro (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Nuu) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Dean Carr (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Alex Nolan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.76
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R9	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.70

Kyle Farrell

48th • 5-6-0

55%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Price (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mystyq Gem Pulmano (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Murray (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kenjy Jap (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Alvarez (Azalea) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Pitcher (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Richard Truong (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs David Pier (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

55% (6/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R11	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Glenn Rosario II

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kenjy Jap (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Raul Verdejo (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Branden Adams (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Garrett Johnson (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Maldonado (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Feng (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.05
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Grant Strom

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jason Davis (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Franche Tan (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Martinez (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Duane Flier (Aurora) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Anthony Camacho (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Kim

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sean Soderman (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zack Phillips (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daylen Frehlick (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gabriel Montes (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dennis Pham (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Shane Martin

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zoe Daniels ()

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Armando Aguilar (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mychael Gochee (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.77
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Zayne Johnson

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Nuu) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Justin Liwag (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kenneth Thomas (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Cody Broten (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Nolan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs kosei chetanna (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Branden Adams

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Tagg (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Castro (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Glenn Rosario II (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Austin Chinn (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Ginn (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.62
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Michael Jaszczur

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Freedman (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Curtis Roth (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Shane Martin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Data Doll MKII	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Maldonado

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oscilio ‫ (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Will Stubbs (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ryu San jose (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Glenn Rosario II (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Castro

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Tabarejo (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Branden Adams (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cody Broten (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Wilson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Steven Suh (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jonathan Sanchez

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Perez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ethan Tabarejo (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Vince Hung (Dash) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.19
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Fernando Valenzuela

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Florian) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Saiewitz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daylen Frehlick (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Freedman (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R5	Silver Age	Data Doll MKII	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Cody Broten

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shereena Decano (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Castro (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Pier (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jesse Perkins

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Perez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Conall Barrett (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Pitcher (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Marc Buchanan

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gwen Olizar ()

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Leon Cassel (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Hayley Neighbors (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Richard Truong (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Omar Candelaria (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Matheo Franchot

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Nolan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Ginn (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ian Hsu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.85
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Sael Garcia

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Blaine Morry ()

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Meza (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Sean Soderman

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Kim (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bryce Douglas (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Harechmak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Brown (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Jason Davis

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Grant Strom (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Kim (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kenneth Amers (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Enrique Gomez (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bryce Douglas (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.85
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Chandler Bushnell

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Steven Suh (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gabriel Montes (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Curtis Roth

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Steven Suh (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Enrique Castro (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Millar (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Jared Del Rosario

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Alvarez (Azalea) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Othman Akel (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Peyton Politewicz

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Carlos Daniel Zamora Salazar (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Omar Candelaria (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Dash) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Vince Hung (Dash) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-

Armando Aguilar

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dan Meadors (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Shane Martin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Gilmore (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joseph Perez

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Perkins (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gavin Ceballos

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Enigma) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tony Nguyen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.