Valda Brightaxe at Calling: San Diego 2026

Valda Brightaxe

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ian Hsu

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Arvin Bernardo (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Ferrell (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kenjy Jap (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matheo Franchot (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Will Stubbs (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41

Mak Kallas

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs JJ Lisonbee (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Alvarez (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Josh Lind (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Matthew Ferrell

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Murray (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Hsu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs None ()

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mychael Gochee (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Enrique Gomez

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Tayag (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Davis (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.