National Championship 2025 - Denmark - Azalea, Ace in the Hole (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thorbjørn Lind Jensen

5th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Sørup Jensen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andreas Ventzel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jamie Alison (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Emil Lohse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Victor Brøcker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Victor Brøcker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.24
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.21
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jacob Joergensen

27th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Kristensen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Henry Wiesner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mathias W (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jonas Rosenkrans (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Emil Spangenberg (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mikkel Hasselbalch Kristensen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.15
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.65
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Jeppe Madsen

22nd • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Casper Bager (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Grøndal (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Rasmussen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Frederik Pedersen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mathias W (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Henry Wiesner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.77
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.23

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.