Katsu, the Wanderer at National Championship 2025 - Denmark
Katsu, the Wanderer
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
32nd • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mathias W (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Grøndal (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Emil Spangenberg (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Christian Jelle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Mads Bergenstoff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.