Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Peter Søndergaard Hald

11th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Martin Rasmussen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Emil Lohse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.93
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.75
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.85

Mads Bergenstoff

40th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christian Sørup Jensen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Johannes Warming (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rene Lorentsen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Casper Bager (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.24
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Emil Spangenberg

37th • 1-5-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mathias W (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Duy Do (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Casper Bager (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Joergensen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nicolai bo pedersen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.