Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Peter Søndergaard Hald

11th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.5

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Martin Rasmussen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Emil Lohse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.14
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.82
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.93

Mads Bergenstoff

40th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christian Sørup Jensen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Johannes Warming (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rene Lorentsen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Casper Bager (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.28
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Emil Spangenberg

37th • 1-5-0

33%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mathias W (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Duy Do (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Casper Bager (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Joergensen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nicolai bo pedersen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.