Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonas Benzarti

2nd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Frederik Pedersen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kristoffer Suensen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kenni Pedersen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

80:20

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sebastian Grøndal (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.42
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.28
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.57
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.63
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.39
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Mathias W

15th • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Emil Spangenberg (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Casper Bager (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Joergensen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Klaus Poulsen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.63
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.12
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Danny Halstad

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henrik Kaldahl (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kenni Pedersen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matiss Cikota (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Duy Do (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.60

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.