Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025 - Denmark
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 6-1-0
43%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
5.0
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Danny Halstad (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
Round 3: Win vs Jamie Alison (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
Round 8: Win vs Victor Brøcker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
5.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
29th • 3-2-1
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Joergensen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Andreas Ventzel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kristoffer Suensen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Anders Gregersen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Jeppe Madsen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Draw |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
21st • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emil Lohse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Duy Do (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mikkel Hansen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Matiss Cikota (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jonas Rosenkrans (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Klaus Poulsen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
24th • 1-4-1
50%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Klaus Poulsen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Henry Wiesner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
Round 9: Loss vs Frederik Damholt Hansen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Draw |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.