Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Asger Thomsen Brem

17th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henry Wiesner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicolai bo pedersen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Danny Halstad (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mikkel Hasselbalch Kristensen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.47
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.37
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Jurij Di Carlo

23rd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kenni Pedersen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lasse Hansen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Christian Jelle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jeppe Nielsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Martin Rasmussen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.89
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.62

Matiss Cikota

36th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mikkel Hasselbalch Kristensen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeppe Nielsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Danny Halstad (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Thomas Lukaszewicz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Thor Bager (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.20
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.