National Championship 2025 - Denmark - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Victor Brøcker

3rd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

4.4

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Grøndal (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Emil Lohse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeppe Nielsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kenni Pedersen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.20
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.35
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.06
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.17
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Emil Lohse

13th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Brøcker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Kristensen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mikkel Hasselbalch Kristensen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.36
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Jacob Friis Nielsen

20th • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jamie Alison (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anders Gregersen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Sebastian Grøndal (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.67	2.37

Jeppe Nielsen

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Duy Do (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matiss Cikota (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Brøcker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lasse Hansen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.20
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Christian Sørup Jensen

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mads Bergenstoff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Frederik Damholt Hansen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Martin Rasmussen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.60

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.