Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2025 - Denmark
Puffin, Hightail
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
42nd • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Joergensen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thor Bager (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Emil Lohse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
5:95
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Anders Gregersen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 7:93
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Frederik Damholt Hansen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jonasemil Schmidt (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 5% | Loss |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.