Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Battle Hardened: Phuket

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Teddy Tai

1st • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

5.1

Surp

4.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jun Jek Wong (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs yi chuan lai (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ricky Lianto (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yi Jun Loh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Long Dao (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Odi Winata (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs (IG) Davin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Eugene Neo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Odi Winata (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.18
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.63
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.82
R10	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Jamal Armand

19th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cesar Yrick Sevilla (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Areena Jasmine Yazid (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tay Yong Chain (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kho Fong Tong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Galaxy Yang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

ChingHeng Lin

22nd • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Tan (Nickay) (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Odi Winata (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Fauzi I (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Julianto (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Cheong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.65
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.77
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Lane Thomason

27th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs York kwok (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Torpong Juntree (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Fauzi I (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eugene Neo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs John Patrick Dogelio (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.68
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.13
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

David Tham

34th • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Cu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Allen Lau (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nitya Kalaichelvan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs (IG) Yehan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Denny Koh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.37
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Vincent Yuen

dropped • 3-1-1

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Witthawat Phanthanitlert (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Timothy Teo (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tay Yong Chain (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Draw	✓	0.70	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Justin Cu

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Tham (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Tang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs kantanat poom chukiat (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.69
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Seb Kho

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kho Fong Tong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Louis Mook (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Odi Winata (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Liang Hsi Ho (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Liang Hsi Ho

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wei Jian Gan (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Si-Jie Gao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs (IG) Davin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Geoffrey Benawar (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Seb Kho (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.51
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kenneth Kong

dropped • 0-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs shirui wu (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Patrick Dogelio (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cliff Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs WEI JIE CHAI (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hilmi Halim

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cliff Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lexiss Pong (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.