Battle Hardened: Phuket - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Odi Winata

2nd • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

5.2

Surp

5.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs ChingHeng Lin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Seb Kho (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Shing Tsang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Teddy Tai (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rocko Yan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Sam Lau (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.43
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.61
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.90
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.85
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

FUKUHARA RYOU

18th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuichi Oshima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Odi Winata (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs (IG) Davin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Clinton Ng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ricky Lianto (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.17
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.51
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Maxim Zervos

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Samyudia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs yi chuan lai (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Patrick Dogelio (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Xie Hang Yeo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.