Battle Hardened: Phuket - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Florin-Cristian Loghin

25th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Lo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Tan (Nickay) (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fauzi I (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ricky Lianto (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs ChingHeng Lin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.08
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

(IG) Yehan

32nd • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yi Jun Loh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Tan (Nickay) (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Julianto (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs WEI JIE CHAI (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yuichi Oshima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Tham (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gary Lee (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.44
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.35
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.95
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

York kwok

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lane Thomason (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cliff Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gary Lee (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.64
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Nils Klaper

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Abbey Fong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Samyudia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kingman Leung (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Galaxy Yang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.76
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.34
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.90
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Kyoshiro Takegahara

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Natanael Avellino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Tham (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kenneth Kong (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Melvin Chew (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.88
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Robbert Valkeneers

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs kantanat poom chukiat (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yuichi Oshima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Cheong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.76
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Roderick So

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kelvin Law (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Denny Koh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Nattapon Phanthanithilerd

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nitya Kalaichelvan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tay Yong Chain (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Haziq Ghazale (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adrian Samyudia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.54
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Wiroon Juesathainrat

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Connor Leverton (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Deitrich Mohan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jamal Armand (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Handy Wijaya

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Deitrich Mohan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.