Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chanon Puttaree

5th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jaturone Chairungsri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nitipoom Soijit (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs ANnansuo Junkeaw (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Torpong Juntree (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

80:20

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Emmanuel Onate (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.09
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

ANnansuo Junkeaw

15th • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.7

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rati Chiewlian (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Patrick Prakobhiran (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs "Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Natthaworn Raungsiripinyo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.05
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.41
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.50
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.28

Tanawat Sukkaew

17th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paramee(Time) Khamsommat (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Prempracha Saensupar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jakob Kernstock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs kritsatorn saengweang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Phitchaya Tungpavitaya (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.52
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.41
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Thiwakorn Kanokwanavong

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jakob Kernstock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Phuntawit (Jojo) Lertphunyavuttikul (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chanokchon Jundee (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.09
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.