National Championship 2025 - Thailand - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Emmanuel Onate

5th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.5

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Pariwiwat Manajit (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jaturone Chairungsri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Chanon Puttaree (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Natchanon kamhanghan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.24
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.40
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.13
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.67	2.04
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Jakob Kernstock

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thiwakorn Kanokwanavong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nattapon Phanthanithilerd (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dachkone Vasonchuenchochai (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tanawat Sukkaew (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sahatsawat Kritsanasub (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.68
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.63
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.15

Patrick Prakobhiran

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nithis Chaidaroon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs "Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wipu Junkeaw (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs ANnansuo Junkeaw (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.51
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.