Ira, Scarlet Revenger at National Championship 2025

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Emmanuel Onate

5th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

5.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Pariwiwat Manajit (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jaturone Chairungsri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

20:80

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Chanon Puttaree (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Natchanon kamhanghan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.51
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68
R8	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.74
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Win	✗	0.78	2.83
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Jakob Kernstock

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thiwakorn Kanokwanavong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nattapon Phanthanithilerd (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dachkone Vasonchuenchochai (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tanawat Sukkaew (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sahatsawat Kritsanasub (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.48
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.15

Patrick Prakobhiran

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nithis Chaidaroon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs "Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wipu Junkeaw (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs ANnansuo Junkeaw (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.