Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at National Championship 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Natchanon kamhanghan

2nd • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.4

Surp

5.8

Diff

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Natthakamol(nack) Rotboonma (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sahatsawat Kritsanasub (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs "Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

Dash I/O

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jaturone Chairungsri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Emmanuel Onate (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.16
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R7	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.52
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.79
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.48
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Prempracha Saensupar

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Jarl Vetreiði

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Max Karl Pendrey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tanawat Sukkaew (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.