National Championship 2025 - Thailand - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Louis Glenn

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Worranun Suklim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chanokchon Jundee (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phitchaya Tungpavitaya (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs "Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.12
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Max Karl Pendrey

dropped • 1-1-1

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Prempracha Saensupar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Draw	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

chayut langthong

dropped • 1-1-1

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Tippayaporn Pongmee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Natthaphon Kasemphonchotinan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nattapon Phanthanithilerd (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.