Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025 - Thailand
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ekalux Ua-areemitr (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Donlaphob Jitsuwanthaya (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42
Round 3: Win vs siwa vichaidit (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35
Round 9: Win vs kritsatorn saengweang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
80:20
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Teerawish Kotesiri (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 81:19
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
14th • 6-0-0
67%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
5.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ritwiset Namwiset (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40
Round 2: Win vs Thiwakorn Kanokwanavong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Wayu Saengphithak (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
Round 7: Win vs Natthaphon Kasemphonchotinan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ekalux Ua-areemitr (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Worranun Suklim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
26th • 1-5-0
67%
Meta
-2.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Loss vs Teerawish Kotesiri (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Witthawat Phanthanitlert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nitipoom Soijit (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Phuntawit (Jojo) Lertphunyavuttikul (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Tatthep Kasetsin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-1
50%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs chayut langthong (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Loss vs Ritwiset Namwiset (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Pongrat Winaiwatthanawong (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Phumin kidlertlam (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Draw |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emmanuel Onate (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ingkarat Boonyamanond (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Loss vs Tanaphun Phuagkhaopong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Wayu Saengphithak (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Kernstock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs chayut langthong (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.