Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025 - Thailand
Arakni, Marionette
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
20th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
3.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs sasawat sirakosol (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
Round 2: Loss vs Emmanuel Onate (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nitipoom Soijit (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Thiwakorn Kanokwanavong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Chantad Tanapisutporn (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.