Arakni, Marionette
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
20th • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs sasawat sirakosol (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Round 2: Loss vs Emmanuel Onate (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nitipoom Soijit (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Thiwakorn Kanokwanavong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
80:20
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Chantad Tanapisutporn (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 78:22
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.