Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025 - Belgium
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs TIBO Verdoodt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Niels Debosschere (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Frederick Middleton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ruben Costers (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Kenny Van Rompaey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
12th • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 30:70
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Robin Deceuninck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
23rd • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jason Huylebroeck (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kevin Faut (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kugane Gaming (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Pepijn Noelanders (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Gust Boelaert (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
28th • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
3.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Erwin Van Herrewegen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kenny Van Rompaey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Thomas Van Minsel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
31st • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Steven Vanbecelaere (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marijn Lybaert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Round 3: Loss vs Gilles De Vylder (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Stijn Audenaert (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Griffin Paesschesoone (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 9: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
44th • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Nijssen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jason Huylebroeck (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Steven Vanbecelaere (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-1-0
33%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Toon Vertommen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kugane Gaming (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nefra Greywulf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Round 2: Loss vs Joris Borkelmans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Steven Vanbecelaere (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.