National Championship 2025 - Belgium - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Stijn Audenaert

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Griffin Paesschesoone (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stijn Borkelmans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Nijssen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Quinten de Jongh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

jurgen schepens

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Niels Debosschere (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Deceuninck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Julien Erdreich

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs jurgen schepens (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Erwin Van Herrewegen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.