National Championship 2025 - Belgium - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michaele Teppa

3rd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kenny Van Rompaey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Florian Vanclaire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kugane Gaming (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Griffin Paesschesoone (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ruben Costers (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.19
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.02
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.46
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Manu Van Driessche

46th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lori Vanderhulst (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Nijssen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sander Deceuninck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Stijn Borkelmans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Thomas De Wolf (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.00
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.53

Björn Debremaeker

51st • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wim Raes (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Khalid Abatouy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs fre De Wilde (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Brecht Van Reusel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.21
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.