Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michaele Teppa

3rd • 6-2-0

25%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kenny Van Rompaey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Florian Vanclaire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kugane Gaming (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Griffin Paesschesoone (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ruben Costers (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.21
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.02
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.32
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.16
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Manu Van Driessche

46th • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lori Vanderhulst (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Nijssen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sander Deceuninck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Stijn Borkelmans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Thomas De Wolf (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.19
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.11

Björn Debremaeker

51st • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wim Raes (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Khalid Abatouy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs fre De Wilde (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Brecht Van Reusel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.56
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.