Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Robbert Valkeneers

36th • 3-2-1

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christof Ackaert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Khalid Abatouy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dimi Van Edom (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Frederick Middleton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Erwin Van Herrewegen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Draw	✗	0.37	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.54
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Ruben Van Dessel

22nd • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs stef van oort (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sébastien Spilliaert (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Lerens (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Julien Desuter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kugane Gaming (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.74
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

TIBO Verdoodt

55th • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Renzo Schietgat (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tibo Vanwambeke (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lori Vanderhulst (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs fre De Wilde (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Anthony Thysbaert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Stijn Borkelmans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.09
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kevin Lerens

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kenny Van Rompaey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordi De Jonghe (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ruben Van Dessel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Faut (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Julien Desuter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.83
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Michel Van der noord

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Mishima (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kjell Lannoo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs fre De Wilde (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Florian Vanclaire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.