National Championship 2025 - Belgium - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gust Boelaert

16th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Van Minsel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wim Raes (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marijn Lybaert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kenny Van Rompaey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sander Deceuninck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Bart Horré (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.35
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.95
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.82

Patrick Mishima

27th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michel Van der noord (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dimitri Francois (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tibo Vanwambeke (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Julien Desuter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.89
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.88
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Brian Cornillie

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ruben Costers (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wim Raes (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Frederic Bernard

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nefra Greywulf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bart Hendriks (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Jason Huylebroeck

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bart Horré (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dimi Van Edom (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stijn Borkelmans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.