Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Melvin Valderrey

35th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bart Hendriks (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Faut (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Björn Debremaeker (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Joris Borkelmans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.80
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.25

Kjell Lannoo

54th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michel Van der noord (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Steven Vanbecelaere (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs fre De Wilde (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.50
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.17
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.86

Thomas De Wolf

48th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pepijn Noelanders (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Frederick Middleton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pavlos Konstantinidis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anthony Thysbaert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Thomas Van Minsel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.67
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Bram Hast

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.