Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at National Championship 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kostas Tsolakidis

25th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anatoliy Mok (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antonis Autzalanidis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nikolas Koutounidis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Flavio Dollani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs George Papatheodorou (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nick Mamonas (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.83
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Yannis Stathakis

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs panagiotis ntemiris (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nikolas Koutounidis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Kitsos (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Evangelos Mytis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gregory Patellis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.24
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.40
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

George Paraskevopoulos

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexandros Argyriou (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Kitsos (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nikos Louganis (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.27
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Panagiotis Sotiropoulos

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dimitris Melissinos (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Konstantinos Paltoglou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dimitris Foutsitzoglou (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

GRIGORIOS KOUVOUSIS

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Mitsikoudis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andreas Ritzakis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dimos Dafnis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.