Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Vasilis Kirlis

5th • 6-1-0

43%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

4.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ioannis Tsolakidis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexandros Argyriou (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dimitris Melissinos (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Isidoros Popovits (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Anastasios Chatzisavvidis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andreas Capsalis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.32
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.14
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.41
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

George Papatheodorou

19th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Panagiotis Panos (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sotiris Konstantelos (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Angelos Maxilaris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nikos Tavoulareas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kostas Tsolakidis (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Konstantinos Paltoglou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.12
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.06
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Giannis Kouris

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Takis Pavlou (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thanos Kotsikas (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Stefania Patsou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Dimos Dafnis

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paris Stevolaimos (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ioannis Tsolakidis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs GRIGORIOS KOUVOUSIS (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.